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Poland Set to ‘Quickly Overtake Britain in Military Strength And Income’

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Britain is on course to ending up being a ‘second tier’ European nation like Spain or Italy due to financial decrease and a weak armed force that undermines its usefulness to allies, an expert has actually warned.

Research professor Dr Azeem Ibrahim OBE concluded in a damning brand-new report that the U.K. has been paralysed by low financial investment, high tax and misdirected policies that might see it lose its standing as a top-tier middle power at current growth rates.

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The stark assessment weighed that successive government failures in regulation and bring in financial investment had actually triggered Britain to miss out on out on the ‘markets of the future’ courted by established economies.

‘Britain no longer has the industrial base to logistically sustain a war with a near-peer like Russia for more than two months,’ he wrote in The Henry Jackson Society’s most current report, Strategic Prosperity: The Case for Economic Growth as a National Security Priority.

The report examines that Britain is now on track to fall behind Poland in terms of per capita earnings by 2030, which the central European nation’s armed force will quickly surpass the U.K.’s along lines of both manpower and equipment on the present trajectory.

‘The concern is that once we are downgraded to a second tier middle power, it’s going to be practically impossible to get back. Nations don’t return from this,’ Dr Ibrahim informed MailOnline today.

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‘This is going to be sped up decline unless we nip this in the bud and have vibrant leaders who are able to make the challenging decisions today.’

People pass boarded up stores on March 20, 2024 in Hastings, England

A British soldier reloads his rifle on February 17, 2025 in Smardan, Romania

Staff Sergeant Rai utilizes a radio to speak to Archer crews from 19th Regiment Royal Artillery during a live fire variety on Rovajärvi Training Area, during Exercise Dynamic Front, Finland

Dr Ibrahim welcomed the federal government’s decision to increase defence costs to 2.5% of GDP from April 2027, but cautioned much deeper, systemic issues threaten to irreversibly knock the U.K. from its position as a worldwide prominent power.

With a weakening industrial base, Britain’s usefulness to its allies is now ‘falling back even second-tier European powers’, he alerted.

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‘Not only is the U.K. predicted to have a lower GDP per capita than Poland by 2030, but likewise a smaller sized army and one that is not able to sustain implementation at scale.’

This is of particular issue at a time of heightened geopolitical stress, with Britain pegged to be amongst the leading forces in Europe’s quick rearmament project.

‘There are 230 brigades in Ukraine today, Russian and Ukrainian. Not a single European nation to install a single heavy armoured brigade.’

‘This is an enormous oversight on the part of subsequent federal governments, not simply Starmer’s problem, of stopping working to invest in our military and essentially outsourcing security to the United States and NATO,’ he informed MailOnline.

‘With the U.S. getting fatigue of providing the security umbrella to Europe, Europe now needs to stand on its own and the U.K. would have been in a premium position to in fact lead European defence. But none of the European nations are.’

Slowed defence costs and patterns of low efficiency are absolutely nothing new. But Britain is now also ‘failing to adjust’ to the Trump administration’s jolt to the rules-based international order, stated Dr Ibrahim.

The previous consultant to the 2021 Integrated Defence and Security Review kept in mind in the report that in spite of the ‘weakening’ of the organizations when ‘protected’ by the U.S., Britain is responding by harming the last vestiges of its military might and financial power.

The U.K., he said, ‘appears to be making significantly costly gestures’ like the ₤ 9bn handover of the strategic Chagos Islands and opening talks on reparations for Caribbean Slavery.

The surrender of the Chagos Islands in the Indian Ocean has been the source of much examination.

Negotiations between the U.K. and Mauritius were begun by the Tories in 2022, but an agreement was revealed by the Labour government last October.

Dr Jack Watling of the Royal United Services Institute defence and security think thank warned at the time that ‘the move shows fretting strategic ineptitude in a world that the U.K. federal government refers to as being characterised by great power competition’.

Calls for the U.K. to offer reparations for its historical role in the servant trade were revived likewise in October in 2015, though Sir Keir Starmer said ahead of a meeting of Commonwealth nations that reparations would not be on the agenda.

A Challenger 2 primary fight tank of the British forces during the NATO’s Spring Storm exercise in Kilingi-Nomme, Estonia, Wednesday, May 15, 2024

Britain’s Prime Minister Keir Starmer and Polish Prime Minister Donald Tusk speak throughout a press conference in Warsaw, Poland, January 17, 2025

Dr Ibhramin assessed that the U.K. seems to be acting against its own security interests in part due to a narrow understanding of risk.

‘We comprehend soldiers and missiles however stop working to fully conceive of the threat that having no option to China’s supply chains may have on our capability to react to military hostility.’

He recommended a new security model to ‘improve the U.K.’s tactical dynamism’ based upon a rethink of migratory policy and risk evaluation, access to unusual earth minerals in a market dominated by China, and the prioritisation of energy security and independence through financial investment in North Sea gas and a long-overdue rethink on nuclear energy.

‘Without immediate policy changes to reignite growth, Britain will end up being a diminished power, reliant on stronger allies and vulnerable to foreign browbeating,’ the Diplomacy writer stated.

‘As global economic competitors heightens, the U.K. should choose whether to embrace a vibrant growth agenda or resign itself to irreversible decrease.’

Britain’s dedication to the concept of Net Zero may be laudable, but the pursuit will hinder growth and odd tactical objectives, he alerted.

‘I am not stating that the environment is not crucial. But we merely can not afford to do this.

‘We are a country that has stopped working to purchase our financial, in our energy infrastructure. And we have substantial resources at our disposal.’

Nuclear power, including making use of small modular reactors, could be an advantage for the British economy and energy independence.

‘But we’ve stopped working to commercialise them and certainly that’s going to take a significant quantity of time.’

Britain did introduce a new funding design for nuclear power stations in 2022, which lobbyists consisting of Labour political leaders had actually insisted was key to finding the cash for expensive plant-building projects.

While Innovate UK, Britain’s development company, has been declared for its grants for little energy-producing business in the house, business owners have warned a larger culture of ‘risk hostility’ in the U.K. suppresses investment.

In 2022, incomes for the poorest 14 million people fell by 7.5%, per the ONS. Pictured: Waterlooville High Street, Waterlooville, Hants

Undated file photo of The British Indian Ocean Territory (BIOT) or Chagos Islands

Britain has actually consistently failed to acknowledge the looming ‘authoritarian threat’, permitting the pattern of managed decrease.

But the resurgence of autocracies on the world stage risks even more undermining the rules-based worldwide order from which Britain ‘benefits tremendously’ as a globalised economy.

‘The danger to this order … has established partly due to the fact that of the lack of a robust will to safeguard it, owing in part to deliberate foreign efforts to subvert the acknowledgment of the true hiding hazard they posture.’

The Trump administration’s warning to NATO allies in Europe that they will need to do their own bidding has gone some method towards waking Britain approximately the urgency of buying defence.

But Dr Ibrahim alerted that this is insufficient. He advised a top-down reform of ‘basically our entire state’ to bring the ossified state back to life and sustain it.

‘Reforming the welfare state, reforming the NHS, reforming pensions – these are essentially bodies that take up of funds and they’ll simply keep growing substantially,’ he informed MailOnline.

‘You might double the NHS budget and it will really not make much of a dent. So all of this will require basic reform and will take a great deal of courage from whomever is in power because it will make them out of favor.’

The report details recommendations in extreme tax reform, pro-growth immigration policies, and a restored concentrate on protecting Britain’s role as a leader in state-of-the-art industries, energy security, and international trade.

Vladimir Putin talks with the guv of Arkhangelsk region Alexander Tsybulsky throughout their conference at the Kremlin in Moscow, Russia, Tuesday, March 11, 2025

File photo. Britain’s economic stagnancy might see it quickly become a ‘2nd tier’ partner

Boarded-up stores in Blackpool as more than 13,000 stores closed their doors for excellent in 2024

Britain is not alone in falling back. The Trump administration’s insistence that Europe spend for its own defence has actually cast fresh light on the Old Continent’s alarming circumstance after decades of slow growth and lowered costs.

The Centre for Economic Policy Research examined at the end of in 2015 that Euro location financial performance has actually been ‘controlled’ considering that around 2018, highlighting ‘diverse challenges of energy dependence, making vulnerabilities, and moving international trade dynamics’.

There stay extensive inconsistencies in between European economies; German deindustrialisation has actually hit organizations hard and forced redundancies, while Spain has grown in line with its tourism-focused economy.

This stays vulnerable, nevertheless, with homeowners increasingly upset by the viewed pandering to foreign visitors as they are priced out of budget-friendly accommodation and caught in low paying seasonal jobs.

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The Henry Jackson Society is a foreign policy and national security think thank based in the UK.

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